Should We Be Concerned About Another Housing Bubble?

Over the last several years, many of the circumstances that triggered the previous housing bubble have changed. Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, breaks down how tax policy, bank regulations, interest rates, lending standards, and home equity have improved our ability to avoid another bubble.


Posted on January 26, 2018 at 9:00 am
Greg Rittner | Posted in Economy | Tagged , ,

What it Means

The new tax bill is expected to be signed by the end of the year. Here is a summary of what it means for your real estate…

(By the way, be sure to RSVP for our Market Forecast on January 18th so you can hear our predictions for next year. Click HERE to register)

The new tax bill:

  • Retains the current law for exclusion of capital gains on a principal residence. You still need to live in a home for 2 of the last 5 years to claim a capital gains exclusion. There was a risk that this would be changed to 5 of the last 8 years, but thankfully it did not.
  • Reduces the limit of deductible mortgage debt from $1 Million to $750,000.
  • Retains the ability to deduct mortgage debt on second homes.
  • Allows for an itemized deduction of up to $10,000 for property taxes. When the bill was first introduced, there was no allowance for a property tax deduction.
  • Retains the current 1031 like-kind exchange rules which is terrific news for investors.

Posted on January 12, 2018 at 9:00 am
Greg Rittner | Posted in Colorado Real Estate, Economy, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , ,

Luxury Leaps

One of our favorite sources of data is the Fort Collins Board of Realtors monthly market report. Their newest release of information showed some interesting numbers on the luxury market and a confirmation of other statistics we are tracking.

The Luxury market is way up over last year.

In the greater Fort Collins area over the last 12 months, sales of single family homes priced between $1 million and $2 million, have leaped up 79% over last year. 24 total sales last year compared to 43 this year.

We included a screen shot from the report below…

We will take a deeper dive and closer look at the luxury market across all of Northern Colorado in our upcoming December Windermere Report (if you don’t already receive this monthly printed newsletter in your mailbox, let us know and we will add you to the list. Just contact us HERE.) 

Quarterly Market Report

Posted on December 20, 2017 at 8:00 am
Greg Rittner | Posted in Economy, Fort Collins Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado added 45,800 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 1.8%. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, annual employment growth was seen in all areas other than Grand Junction (where employment was stable) with substantial growth seen in Fort Collins (4.6%) and Greeley (3.5%).

In August, the unemployment rate in the state was 2.2%, down from 3.1% a year ago. The lowest reported unemployment rates were again seen in Fort Collins at just 1.8%. The highest rate was in Grand Junction, at a very respectable 3.0%. It is still reasonable to assume that all the markets contained within this report will see above-average wage growth given the very tight labor market.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • There were 17,140 home sales during the third quarter of 2017, which was a drop of 3.3% from the same period in 2016.
  • Sales rose the fastest in Boulder County, which saw sales grow 4% more than the third quarter of 2016. There were marginal increases in Weld and Larimer Counties. Sales fell in all the other counties contained within this report.
  • Home sales slowed due to very low levels of available inventory. Listing activity continues to trend at well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the third quarter 5.5% below the level seen a year ago.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth has stalled due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

  • With substantial competition for the few available homes, prices continue to rise. Average prices were up 7.5% year-over-year to a regional average of $428,602.
  • Slower appreciation in home values was again seen in Boulder County, but the trend is still positive.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Weld County, which saw prices rise 12%.
  • Due to an ongoing imbalance between supply and demand, home prices will continue to appreciate at above-average rates for the foreseeable future.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by one day when compared to the third quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in all counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out as it took an average of just two weeks to sell a home there.
  • During the third quarter, it took an average of 20 days to sell a home. This is up by 3 days compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • Demand remains strong, and well-positioned, well-priced homes continue to sell very quickly.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

In the third quarter of 2017, I have chosen to leave the needle where it was in the second quarter. Homes are still scarce; however, there is a small slowdown in price growth and a decline in both closed and pending sales. This may suggest the market is either getting weary of all the competition or that would-be buyers are possibly putting off buying until they see more choices in the number of homes for sale.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

 

 

 


Posted on November 6, 2017 at 9:57 pm
Greg Rittner | Posted in Economy | Tagged , , , , , ,

Memory Lane

Today we will take a fun trip down memory lane.

Did you know that it was the fall of 1981 when mortgage interest rates hit their all time peak? Yes, it was this time 36 years ago when 30-year mortgage rates hit 18.39%.

1980's Roller DiscoYikes!

It’s important to note that in those days, not many home buyers were opting for a 30-fixed loan because rates were so high. There were a lot of people looking at adjustable rate products as a way to reduce the monthly payment.

Just for fun, let’s look at what a monthly payment would look like if those same rates from 1981 existed today.

If rates were 18.39% today, a $350,000 home with a 20% down payment would have a monthly principal and interest payment of…

$4,309! Yikes!

Thank goodness rates aren’t that high today. They are actually about 15% lower!

Today’s 30-year rate sits at 3.83% (which by the way is roughly half of the long term average).

A monthly principal and interest payment on a $350,000 home with 20% down is…

$1,309. Three thousand dollars lower than it would be using 1981 ‘s rates.

For a detailed look at what’s happening across Colorado, request our quarterly market report called “The Gardner Report“, written by Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.


Posted on October 23, 2017 at 7:55 pm
Greg Rittner | Posted in Economy | Tagged , , , , ,